Schwassmann-Wachmann 3: the astronomer speaks out!

In recent days, controversy has been brewing online regarding Comet Schwassmann-Wachmann 3, which is expected to fly by Earth between May 11 and 25. Astronomers, including Karol Wójcicki, explain that fears of fragments falling from the comet may be exaggerated. Wójcicki emphasizes that the minimum distance the comet is expected to come within is 15,000 km, which doesn't mean it will actually fly that close. Furthermore, the phenomenon of comet disintegration is a natural phenomenon, not the result of mysterious acts. Fragments of the comet can currently be observed in the night sky.

Recently, a heated online discussion has erupted regarding the disintegrating comet Schwassmann-Wachmann 3, or more precisely, its fragments, which are expected to pass "very close" to our planet between May 11 and 25. Rumors are rife about the possible impact of one of its fragments near the Arctic Circle.

Finally, the most competent people on this matter, those with sufficient knowledge to be able to say anything at all, have come forward. One of these people is Karol Wójcicki, an amateur astronomer from Warsaw, who has been speaking on the VRP Forum .

Let's start with the question that most concerns the "ordinary bread-eaters," concerning the possible fall of one of the comet fragments. Here's an excerpt from an article that recently appeared in Paranormalium:

Eric Julien, a former French military air traffic controller and airport manager, has completed research on comet 73P Schwassmann-Wachmann and declared that it is very likely that a fragment of it will hit Earth around May 25, 2006.

According to the information provided by Wójcicki, Julien put forward his theory based on... a simulation performed using a regular Java applet (similar to those used on websites).

The orbit itself is worth mentioning. The comet will approach to within 15,000 km. And did anyone mention that this is the MINIMUM distance at which the comet CAN approach, resulting from a poorly understood orbit determined from only eight observations? Just because this MINIMUM distance is 15,000 km doesn't mean the comet will pass within that distance. We've encountered objects that were supposed to approach very close, and as it turned out, they passed us by a wide berth , said Wójcicki. Another issue is the sometimes truly ridiculous statements from "experts" about the "mysterious disintegration of a comet." The disintegration of a comet in the solar system is normal. There's nothing mysterious about it. I propose a simple experiment. Sit with your friends on a carousel, without strapping yourselves in. Have someone start spinning it extremely fast. I GUARANTEE that if you don't hold on tight, you'll simply fall off the carousel. This is more or less what the comet's disintegration looked like. There's nothing extraordinary about it. According to Wójcicki, it's downright foolish to attempt to link the comet's disintegration to the "actions of little green men" or the actions of the US government.

Meanwhile, since yesterday we have had the opportunity to observe brightly shining fragments of the comet in the night sky, marked as B and C. The places where they can be observed are shown on the map of the TwojaPogoda.pl website (to see it, click on the image)

Fragment B has brightened more than three times in recent days, which may indicate it is continuing to decay. Its current magnitude is 5, meaning it is as bright as a star and can be seen with the naked eye in some areas.